The Bear’s Lair: Scott Bessent must be the anti-Soros

The background of Scott Bessent, President-elect Trump’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, contains warning signals for fans of Trump and the U.S. economy, in that he worked for George Soros, for whom he was instrumental in the highly profitable 1992 trashing of the pound. For Trump, he must pursue an anti-Soros agenda, sweeping away the remnants of globalism, central planning and wokery in favor of William McKinley’s tariff-driven nationalism and hard-money policy, and Calvin Coolidge’s severe pruning of overgrown government. If at his retirement the Financial Times praises his “moderating influence” he will have utterly failed, subverting the Trump promise and blocking the long-term prosperity which the American people have voted for and deserve. Continue reading

The Bear’s Lair: Ending the perpetual war

One enormous potential advantage of President Trump’s re-election is that it may enable the United States to end the perpetual war in which it has been engaged since 2001. That war has caused U.S. public debt to spiral from 30% of GDP to over 100%, destabilized large sections of the world turning them into unproductive wastelands, and killed or maimed large numbers of Americans and even larger numbers of other nationalities. While peace will never entirely reign in this imperfect world, a U.S. policy of non-intervention will at least keep the conflicts localized and unimportant to those not involved. Achieving this would be the greatest possible achievement of Trump’s second term, provided the U.S. electorate does not thereafter foolishly repeat its gross error of 2020 and repudiate his good work. Continue reading

The Bear’s Lair: Should we follow Ron Paul and End the Fed

The great Ron Paul is associated with Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency and is well known for wishing to abolish one of the least effective government entities: the Federal Reserve. As the Department of Education and other hallowed government entities become one with Nineveh and Tyre, Paul’s question should be asked, whose answer bears on the whole question of U.S. and global monetary policy: Should we End the Fed? After the last two decades, I believe the Fed’s overall track record is now bad enough that the answer to Paul’s question is “Yes”. This column will suggest why and how. Continue reading

The Bear’s Lair: An agenda for Elon Musk

Before President Donald Trump’s substantial re-election, Elon Musk had promised to head a “Department Of Government Efficiency” that might cut $2 trillion from the Federal budget, and even floated the idea of bringing in the great Dr. Ron Paul, who at 89 is an encouragement to us all. That seems an eminently attractive goal, entirely in line with traditional Republican policy, although traditional Republicans (at least since President Ford) always turned out weak and backsliding when it came to implementing spending cuts. In the hope that Musk means it (his success in cutting waste at X/Twitter is at least encouraging) I thought it worth presenting some ideas of activities that could be axed. I focus here on cash savings rather than quality improvements; even in agencies one might keep (such as the Federal Emergency Management Agency from recent news) there are clearly many “bad apples” and an appalling management ethic; these must also be remedied. Continue reading

The Bear’s Lair: Brits Must Choose their Betrayal for 2029

The Conservative Party, of which Kemi Badenoch has just been elected leader, has been betraying its supporters since 1834. The new Reform party has not yet begun betraying its supporters, but undoubtedly will if it selects parliamentary candidates centrally. Those Brits wishing to achieve the distant miracle of having their country competently governed therefore have a choice to make. Either they must try to reform the Conservatives to become more Tory, in the tradition of the fine 1783-1830 governments, or they must Toryise the Reform party. Both appear difficult, but the difficulties are different, and deciding which Matterhorn to attempt will set the history of the next decade. Continue reading

The Bear’s Lair: Funny Money regime is Falling Apart

No less an authority than Mohamed El-Erian, former CEO of the $2 trillion bond giant PIMCO, has now said in the Financial Times that we should pay attention to the rise in the gold price above $2,700, up around 40% over the past year. El-Erian is a former advisor to President Obama and perennial bond bull, so his change of view is akin to a stopped clock suddenly registering a new time. We should pay attention when this happens. In a world of fiat currencies and unreliable governments, gold or its equivalent is the only sound monetary basis. Let us hope that after almost a century of monetary folly, world leaders are re-learning this lesson. Continue reading

The Bear’s Lair: Tariffs + High Immigration = Robber Barons

President Trump has proposed a general tariff for the United States if he is re-elected. This is traditional Republican policy; the GOP was highly protectionist from 1860 until 1932, with the 1862 Morrill Tariff being the first major assault on Britain’s attempt to move to a free-trade world. However looking back, the Republican tariff policy of the 19th Century, when combined with free immigration, produced prosperity mainly for “robber barons” who became unprecedentedly wealthy, and not for ordinary people. It is a poisonous mixture, which Trump should avoid. Continue reading

The Bear’s Lair: The Industrial Revolution included Luxury Goods.

Winterhalter's 'The Empress Eugenie Surrounded by her Ladies in Waiting'Haute couture dresses are hand-sewn by craftsmen, as they were centuries ago. First growth wines are produced by methods established in the Middle Ages, though there is much new chemical knowledge in their contents. Yet both product groups, now with vast ancillary industries worth hundreds of billions, were the product of mid-19th century industrialization; without it they would not exist. By understanding the Industrial Revolution’s spread beyond steam engines, we can better understand potential sources of new wealth today. Continue reading

The Bear’s Lair: A 28th Amendment for property and elections

The recent assaults on property rights by abusive governments and law-enforcement agencies, the “lawfare” against President Trump and his associates, in which the same misdeed is treated quite differently depending on the perpetrator, and the shenanigans and double standards surrounding U.S. elections all show that U.S. constitutional protections are increasingly being eroded. To defend them, more than just legislation is needed, because legislation can be reversed with every short-term swing of the electoral pendulum. We need a 28th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. I would like to explore herein what such an Amendment should contain. Continue reading

The Bear’s Lair: Ever since Peel, the cheap labor lobby ruins lives

Jamie McGregor of McGregor Metal in Springfield OH. openly welcomed the opportunity to employ Haitian refugee immigrants for wages far below what he would pay domestic labor. In that, he is typical of the cheap labor lobby ever since Sir Robert Peel (1750-1830), father and son. The low wage lobby is destroying our societies and their economies; it must at all costs be defeated. Continue reading