Month: December 2002

The Bear’s Lair: An Asian dream dissolves

South Korea has been a shining economic example for four decades, with an extraordinarily rapid and sustained growth rate, even after the 1997 Asian crisis. Now, with the election of Millennium Democrat Party president Roh Moo-hyun, this may be about to change. The Japanese disease beckons.

The Bear’s Lair: The costs of holidays

As we are reminded every Christmas of Charles Dickens’ Ebenezer Scrooge, it is well to remember, that as a small businessman, he had a point. “A day older, and not a penny richer” is precisely what’s wrong with Christmas for a person with payroll to meet, except that these days, the revenue downtime is far […]

The Bear’s Lair: Bear Food – Fourth meal

Three times in the past two years, in January 2001, December 2001 and June 2002 I have listed three stocks that in my opinion were “Bear Food” — more likely than most to decline sharply. The time has now come for a fourth such meal, and for a review of the first three.

The Bear’s Lair: Redline Latin America?-I

Traditionally, U.S. banks “redlined” certain inner-city areas, refusing to lend to inhabitants thereof because they believed nobody living there could be an acceptable credit risk. As the political and economic situation in Latin America deteriorates, the question must now be asked: should a rational lending bank or portfolio investor “redline” Latin America as a whole?

The Bear’s Lair: Britain-Apocalypse soon!

The England Test cricket team has just blown the third successive Test Match in a five-match series, thus ensuring that the “Ashes” remain with Australia, as they have after all nine series since 1987. Since England’s population is more than twice Australia’s, and the country is somewhat richer, this becomes at some point embarrassing. It […]