In the 1960s through the 1980s, the former World War II Axis countries of Japan and Germany were the engines of world economic growth. Since 1990, both countries have endured lengthy recessions, their economic systems sneered at by U.S. commentators. Both countries face crucial elections in September amid signs of economic revival. Should we remove […]

The Consumer Price Index and weekly earnings figures published Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a disquieting trend: while consumer prices in the year to July 2005 increased by 3.2 percent, average weekly earnings increased by only 2.7 percent over the preceding year. In spite of solid economic growth, the average U.S. worker […]

The oil price rose Friday through $66 per barrel, up 60 percent since I wrote in June 2004 about the possibility of it hitting $80, and three times its historical average over the two decades 1982-2001. Yet the stock and bond markets over the last few weeks have shown only mild qualms, continuing their strong […]

As many commentators have outlined, there is currently a very high level of liquidity in the world economy, with risk premiums for emerging market bonds at low levels and high foreign investment in many countries. This can’t last, and serious fissures will open up when it changes.

University of Chicago Professor Steven Davis, at an American Enterprise Institute seminar Wednesday, presented an examination of the Bureau of Labor Statistics figures on job creation and destruction. Most interesting was a difference between the early 1990s recession and recovery and that following 2000: In the early 1990s there was a temporary increase in the […]