Year: 2007

The Bear’s Lair: Breaking the BRICs

Over the last few years, emerging market investment has been overwhelmingly centered around the concept of the “BRIC” group of emerging economies – Brazil, Russia, India and China. These countries were supposed to be the giants of 2050 and the only emerging markets that a truly Important institutional investor should consider, because of their liquidity. […]

The Bear’s Lair: The Main Street Crash

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s call Tuesday for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government sponsored enterprises dedicated to housing lending, to reduce their outstanding assets below the current $1.4 trillion is a classic political statement. It will have no effect in practice, except to insulate Bernanke somewhat from criticism once Freddie and Fannie are […]

The Bear’s Lair: This is what it will look like

It’s impossible to tell when the world’s stock markets will finally wake up from their easy-money induced stupor, but one thing is clear: when they do so the initial break will look like last Tuesday. A modest event of no apparent global significance will cause a stock market drop that cascades around the world, producing […]

The Bear’s Lair: Springtime for Stalin

The high tide of globalization, free trade and capitalism, which had seemed so irresistible in the 1990s, appears to be receding, even as the world economy continues to expand. In country after country, new economic experiments are being tried which have the effect of increasing the state’s control over economic matters. Not just a general […]

The Bear’s Lair: The terrorist poverty trap

It is becoming clear as we move further away from the Cold War years and confront new geopolitical threats that there is a high correlation between the level of asymmetrical threat from a country and the hopelessness of life in the country concerned. Thus North Korea is a country from which threats to our existence […]

The Bear’s Lair: Will India stay miraculous?

The Economist’s leading article last week suggested that India’s long boom was about to end in a credit crunch. At first sight, this seems unduly pessimistic. China’s boom hasn’t yet ended in disaster, so why should India’s? However, when India’s position is examined more closely one comes to the conclusion that, while a crunch is […]

The Bear’s Lair: Ban the options scam!

The Securities and Exchange Commission Tuesday threw yet more dust into the eyes of investors on the knotty question of stock options valuation, when it issued a letter to Zions Bancorporation allowing them to value management stock options by means of a tiny parallel issue in the “market.” While appearing to be only a modest […]

The Bear’s Lair: The dilemma about doctors

President George W. Bush’s plan to abolish the tax deductibility of corporate health insurance, while granting a tax break for its private purchase doesn’t solve many of the US health system’s problems. Not surprising; the incentives involved in healthcare purchase are bizarre, and always have been. Only when this reality is recognized, and the economics […]

The Bear’s Lair: Lady Bountiful’s ill-gotten gains

U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson’s announcement that he will devote $800 million of his Goldman Sachs fortune to charitable activities, primarily in the area of the environment, brought coos of approval from the business and establishment press. In reality, it raises serious questions about the market’s efficiency. Does a system in which wealth is achieved […]

The Bear’s Lair: The lost continent

Venezuela’s nationalization of the telephone company CANTV and the electric utility Electricidad de Caracas have demonstrated once again how insecure are property rights, not just in Venezuela, but in Latin America as a whole. Latin Americans pay for their disdainful attitude to those rights, in every paycheck they get, because the lack of secure property […]