Month: April 2008

The Bear’s Lair: Oil in 2012: $200 or $50?

CIBC World Markets analysts recently predicted that oil would sell for $200 a barrel in 2012, as oil supplies grow ever tighter relative to demand. That would imply a continued global boom for the next four years, which would bring inflation, perhaps validating CIBC’s prophesy as the dollar went the way of the 1923 Reichsmark. […]

The Bear’s Lair: The rising protectionist tide

The credit crisis took an ugly turn this week, when a number of countries banned rice exports, causing the price of the staple to soar above $1,000 per tonne, treble its level a year ago. Politically and economically, the world has moved decisively in the direction of protectionism and seems likely to continue further along […]

The Bear’s Lair: The degradation of accounting

Fair value accounting, by which debt and equity securities on a company’s balance sheet are “marked to market” — written up or down to their market price — has been hyped by accountants and regulators as the epitome of modern financial reporting, enabling investors to gain a completely true picture of their investment’s financial position. […]

The Bear’s Lair: The de-flattening of the world

“The world is flat” declared New York Times columnist Thomas L. Friedman in 2005. His book was full of heart-warming anecdotes about noble Third World businessmen being brought together through the Internet; in terms of hard analytical truth it was something of a stretch even then. However, it is now certain that the world has […]