Month: June 2008

The Bear’s Lair: Infrastructure’s inefficiencies

Both the Economist and the Washington Post have recently denounced the poor state of US infrastructure; it is obviously becoming fashionable to do so. However, much of their criticism is ill-founded. Infrastructure failures are inevitable because infrastructure decisions have become politicized and suffer from the results of that politicization. Infrastructure investment has thus become a […]

The Bear’s Lair: A new model for nastiness

Ever since the late 1990s, bears like myself have been forecasting a major economic downturn in the United States, but wavering in doubt as to whether it would be more like the 1930s, with price deflation and really deep economic decline, or the 1970s, with unpleasant inflation but shallower economic decline. The urge to forecast […]

The Bear’s Lair: The murder of US manufacturing

GE’s announcement a week ago that it would accept offers for its appliances business marked the death-knell of yet another US manufacturing business, one among so many in US manufacturing’s long and seemingly unstoppable downtrend since 1980. That decline may seem an inevitable historical trend, and Wall Street’s analysts would claim that the US economy […]

The Bear’s Lair: Into a new policy era

We now know who the two major candidates for President will be in November and one thing has become abundantly clear: we are in a new policy era. The free-market economic policy consensus that appeared so firmly established in the 1990s has broken down, and participants in both the US and global economies will have […]

The Bear’s Lair: Exploding innovations

Eleven of the world’s largest investment banks have announced the creation of a clearing house, to open in September, for the $62.3 trillion credit derivatives market. Since it has been patently obvious for several years that such an innovation was essential for the stability of the market, the news is welcome, if a little belated. […]