Month: April 2009

The Bear’s Lair: The echoing trading-floor caverns

Last Wednesday’s British budget did very little to rectify that country’s yawning fiscal deficit, but what little it did was almost entirely at the expense of the country’s high income earners, those making over 150,000 pounds ($210,000). The fascinating question is: if British governments return to their pre-1979 high-tax ways, as seems likely, what will […]

The Bear’s Lair: The changing recessionary alphabet

The alphabet soup of possible shapes for this recession is now clarifying somewhat. The recent strength in several US and global indicators, before fiscal stimulus has had time to kick in, indicates that the panic among governments after September’s financial crisis was overblown. Indeed the strength in economic indicators, combined with the global stock market […]

The Bear’s Lair: The world’s most important election

Relatively little rested economically on the result of last November’s US Presidential election. John McCain was politically well towards the big-government wing of the Republican party, while President Barack Obama, after an initial burst of public spending will be forced by economic reality to retrench during his remaining years in office. There is however an […]

The Bear’s Lair: Prolonged global winter

With increasing frequency over the last few weeks, economic statistics have emerged suggesting that the first shoots of economic spring are emerging and that the bottom of the US and global recession is only just round the corner. Higher vehicle sales and factory orders, the Institute of Supply Management monthly index and slightly higher personal […]