Month: September 2009

The Bear’s Lair: Towards a reality-based capitalism

A new webzine CFOZone has highlighted a study showing that companies which declare “pro-forma” earnings (dolled up by management to reflect the most favorable assumptions) suffer increased attention from short sellers, about $1.3 million worth after the pro-forma earnings declaration. This is good news; it suggests that the market is becoming hostile to attempts to […]

The Bear’s Lair: Gross Domestic Fudging

French President Nicholas Sarkozy has leaped with glee on the proposal by a commission headed by Joseph Stiglitz to redefine Gross Domestic Product. After all, if feminine attractiveness, length of vacations and quantity of garlic in the food can be included, France will rank much higher than in more old-fashioned measures. Plus, the existence of […]

The Bear’s Lair: The W is getting lazier

Optimism is breaking out all over. The stock market is up 50% since early march, and pundits are discussing how long it will take to get back to the levels of 2007. The economy appears to be recovering nicely, and the Obama administration is attempting to claim credit for causing it to do so through […]

The Bear’s Lair: Possible October surprises

Economists’ crystal balls are clouded right now. They see signs of a burgeoning global recovery, but retail sales and other key data surprise with their weakness. There is no sign of inflation, yet commodity prices are extraordinary strong, given we are in the depths of a major recession. The reality is that fiscal and monetary […]