Month: November 2009

The Bear’s Lair: Pockets of rot

The collapse of Dubai World is pretty unsurprising; when examined closely the Dubai real estate market was always likely to prove a gigantic bubble. It does however raise the question: how many other pockets of rot are around globally, left over from the cheap money boom of 2003-07 and likely to plunge the world’s markets […]

The Bear’s Lair: Wanted: iconoclasts

The publicity and vituperation around the book tour of a middling ex-Governor of Alaska seems to have nothing to do with Sarah Palin’s politics, which judging from her term in office are unexceptional and only center-right. The heat derives from her style, which is that of an iconoclast outsider, and from the establishment’s fear that […]

The Bear’s Lair: Waiting for the train-wreck

The rise in the gold price above $1,100 per ounce this week is a pretty good indicator that something has changed. For eighteen months, the gold price had been in a trading range topping out around $1,000l it has now broken out decisively from that range. The opportunity for the world’s central banks to change […]

The Bear’s Lair: Which big country will default first?

Of the world’s six largest economies, three currently have budget and public debt positions that if allowed to fester will push those nations into bankruptcy (the seventh largest, Italy, also has a budget and debt position that is highly vulnerable, but its problems appear chronic rather than acute.) Given the proclivities of modern politicians for […]

The Bear’s Lair: Lessons from past crashes

Yes, I know we’ve just had the 80th anniversary of the 1929 Crash. So what? We can learn a lot from past Crashes and economic disasters, but that particular one is looking less and less relevant to the position we are in today.