Month: January 2011

The Bear’s Lair: The German-Chinese world

The Congressional Budget Office’s report Wednesday that the U.S. budget deficit was to run close to 10% of Gross Domestic Product for a third successive year, together with President Obama’s refusal to face the need for major public spending cuts in his State of the Union Tuesday night, finally opened the possibility of a lengthy […]

The Bear’s Lair: The death of venturing

Venture capital fundraising in 2010 declined from $16.3 billion to $12.3 billion, according to Thomson Reuters data. That’s a far cry from the average of over $30 billion annually in 2005-07, let alone the peak of $106 billion raised in 2000. Contrast those figures with the datum that the value of hedge funds closed at […]

The Bear’s Lair: Dee-fault, Dee-fault!

A poll last week showed that 71% of Americans don’t want Congress to raise the debt ceiling from its current $14.3 trillion, a level that the total of outstanding debt is expected to hit in March. According to conventional pundits, this is extraordinarily irresponsible, leading to a U.S. default on its outstanding debt. Yet as […]

The Bear’s Lair: Two toxic bubbles in one

Goldman Sachs’ $2 billion deal for Facebook, valuing the social networking site at $50 billion, combines the worst elements of the 1997-2000 and 2004-07 bubbles. It sets a grossly excessive valuation on an Internet company with modest revenues and prospects. It also involves an investment bank structuring a complex deal to maximize its own fees, […]

The Bear’s Lair: Multi-polar world

The French sale of an advanced helicopter carrier with all the latest equipment to Russia announced last week is yet another indication that not only are the old Cold War certainties gone, but so are the assumptions of the benign U.S.-centric “globalized” world of 1991-2010. The new multi-polar world order that seems to be emerging […]