Year: 2020

The Bear’s Lair: Will the Bear’s Lair see Bearmageddon?

The twentieth anniversary of this “Bear’s Lair” column passed in late October. During that period, the stock market has risen, but pretty much every other indicator of U.S. economic health has declined. Actuarially at age 70, I can expect to be writing this column for another 14 years and 3 months (though the column’s coherence […]

The Bear’s Lair: Escape from the zombie economy

According to statistics collected by the Financial Times, the number of zombie companies, those that do not earn enough to service their debts, has increased steadily since 2010. What is more, the probability of those companies remaining “zombie” has also increased steadily. This is not surprising; 25 years of artificially low interest rates and easy […]

The Bear’s Lair: The Wokenomics approach to monetary policy

In a thousand years’ time, when the economic history of our era is examined by forensic historians, Senator Lamar Alexander (R.-TN) will receive special notice as the tiny catalyst for economic collapse. His rejection of Judy Shelton for the Fed Board of Governors, on the grounds that she is too close to an administration that […]

The Bear’s Lair: Are we watching the end of Julian the Apostate?

You don’t need to read all six volumes of Edward Gibbon’s “Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire” – Gore Vidal’s “Julian” will do. From AD 361 to 363 (AUC 1114 to 1116, to use the calendar Julian would undoubtedly have preferred) he was a popular and successful Roman Emperor, attempting to reverse novel elite […]

The Bear’s Lair: Better abolish colleges, not just college debts

President-probably-elect Joe Biden has confirmed that he intends to introduce a forgiveness program on student debts, perhaps up to $50,000 as Senator Elizabeth Warren (D.MA) has proposed. This is a direct subsidy to the relatively rich, to be paid for by suffering middle-class taxpayers. Rather than forgiving the debts of the relatively rich, let us […]

The Bear’s Lair: Boris would have banned steam engines

British prime minister Boris Johnson announced this week that he would make it illegal to sell petrol or diesel-driven automobiles from 2030, pushing the British into a fleet of electric cars. He proclaimed this would lead to a “green industrial revolution.” Fat chance! If Boris had been around in the 1780s, he would have had […]

The Bear’s Lair: The Trump Presidential Library should be HUGE!

As President Trump seems likely to leave office in January, the historically minded of us should reflect on his legacy. In the short-term, maybe until 2200, his reputation will doubtless be smeared. It took 250 years for King Charles II to get his due from historians, and Lord Liverpool, almost 200 years later, still has […]

The Bear’s Lair: The economics of plague

Boris Johnson’s decision to lock down England again until December 2, is economically and scientifically bizarre. It is based on advice from the faulty mathematicians at Imperial College, who proved to be hopelessly in error when the COVID-19 pandemic first arrived in March. It will damage the British economy, and probably kill more people than […]

The Bear’s Lair: Back to the politics of Henry Fox

Henry Fox, 1st Baron Holland (1705-74) made £400,000, equivalent to about $100 million today, from the office of Paymaster of the Forces during the Seven Years War. Shortly after his departure, British politics was cleaned up, so that fifty years later statesmen such as Lord Liverpool lost money on 15 years as Prime Minister. In […]

The Bear’s Lair: Trump beats Biden or a Bushie.

Calvin Coolidge is not running. Nor is Lord Liverpool, though his ability to win four successive general elections in his own time suggests he could do so now, with only modest policy adjustments. When deciding whom to vote for, we must measure the available candidates, not against perfection, but against the opposition candidate and those […]