The Bear’s Lair

The Bear’s Lair: What is the Right Price for Greenland?

President Trump wants the United States to buy Greenland, and European recalcitrance against the idea led him to impose further tariffs on the EU to spur negotiations. Trump’s negotiating techniques may be rough, but the geopolitical advantages of a U.S. takeover of Greenland are clear, and EU hatred of Trump should not be allowed to […]

The Bear’s Lair: The U.S. Needs a Much Humbler Fed

The most Important financial market news this week was not the U.S. Justice Department’s opening an investigation into Fed Chairman Powell over the Fed’s grossly mismanaged building project, but Powell’s hysterically arrogant and entitled response to it, which was joined by other central bank chiefs. The Fed Chairman is not above the law, and the […]

The Bear’s Lair: Trump-san, you’re running late 1980s Japan!

In major markets, there have been two occasions when stock market indices have crashed and stayed below their peak for a quarter-century. One was the U.S. in 1929, where the Dow Jones Industrial Index finally topped its 1929 peak in 1954. The other was Japan, where the December 1989 Nikkei peak of 38,915.87 was surpassed […]

The Bear’s Lair: The Battle for Expensive Labor

In a sound political system, it should be obvious that the principal task of politicians is to maximize the living standards and life quality of the people they govern. Given that truism, the politician’s principal economic aim should be to ensure that their constituents’ labor is as expensive as possible. This will ensure that new […]

The Bear’s Lair: What would bring the 1820s back again?

In discussing modern American, British or global politics, I often find myself on a different planet from other commentators, because my preferred political system is not that of any modern polity, but that of Britain under Lord Liverpool’s government from 1812 to 1827. Most of the policies were better in that government’s earlier years, but […]

The Bear’s Lair: Are bankers coming to their senses?

JP Morgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon recently expressed a preference for Kevin Warsh over Kevin Hassett as the next Fed Chairman, on the grounds that Warsh is less likely to be influenced by President Trump’s calls for rate cuts. To one who has followed bankers for several decades (and been one in the distant past) […]

The Bear’s Lair: Thought Police Kill the Economy

Britain, the EU and Canada have instituted regimes of “thought police” where police departments randomly arrest those “guilty” of politically incorrect social media postings. They have also in recent years suffered economic growth rates far below their historic norms, which have produced a yawning gap between their living standards and those of the by no […]

The Bear’s Lair: We Had the Singularity in 1712

For decades now, techno-optimists have been prattling about a “Singularity” that will immeasurably increase the growth rate in human productivity and thereby living standards. This Singularity may either come through Artificial Intelligence, as it outpaces the human brain and begins to make its own technological advances, or through other technologies that combine to produce a […]

The Bear’s Lair: Blame America’s Decline on the Bushes

Ronald Reagan was a pretty good President but like all of us not perfect. Probably his greatest blunder, like Margaret Thatcher’s and without her excuse of facing an unexpected end to her rule, lay in not securing a successor who would follow his principles. The Presidency of George H.W. Bush (Bush 41), whose break with […]

The Bear’s Lair: CEO pay has become a scam

The Wall Street Journal this week defended executive compensation by citing the case of Doug McMillon, CEO of Walmart (NYSE:WMT) since 2014, who in the year to January 31, 2025 earned $27.4 million. With a good track record in a company with $681 billion in revenues and 2.1 million employees worldwide, that amount was reasonable […]