The Bear’s Lair

The Bear’s Lair: Kevin Warsh’s 4-dimensional chess

As his past speeches have shown, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh knows well that the Fed monetary policy follies of 2009-22, with their money printing and artificially low interest rates, have left the U.S. with a huge overhang of overinflated stocks, dodgy debt and tottering real estate. He must thus burst this gigantic bubble, while avoiding […]

The Bear’s Lair: Better robots than governments!

Elon Musk has now joined Dario Amodei of Anthropic and Sam Altman of OpenAI in demanding that government mandate a slowdown in the development of artificial intelligence. The three largest players in a growth industry demanding government regulation forms an infallible indicator of a potential cartel, in which new and smaller players in the industry […]

The Bear’s Lair: Three decades of delusion

The AfD’s election win in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6 has shocked Germany and the world, but it should not have done so, being a direct result of the delusional policies of the last three decades. After the Wall fell in 1989-91, liberal pundits proclaimed the “End of History,” pronounced that international trade barriers would fall, […]

The Bear’s Lair: Twilight of the Consultants

Consultant usage by large corporations and governments has exploded since the 1970s. In both types of organization, tough decisions are outsourced to consultants so their victims can blame the consultants rather than management or bureaucrats. Consultants are also used to implement ever more complex IT systems, their natural incentive being to stretch implementation projects for […]

The Bear’s Lair: Canada – the living standards lemming

For nine years from 2006 to 2015, Canada was better managed than the United States. Its prime minister Stephen Harper, if too diffident and compromising for my taste, was notably more intelligent and economically capable than either U.S. President of the period, George W. Bush or Barack Obama. Its GDP growth matched that in the […]

The Bear’s Lair: Deflating the Financial Engineering Bubble

The decade of ultra-low-interest-rate Bernankeism in the 2010s, which produced ziggurats of misguided investment, has left a huge amount of overhang in the worldwide debt markets, which must at some stage deflate and be written off. Big-city real estate and tech stocks form a large part of this overhang. However, the largest element, most dangerous […]

The Bear’s Lair: When should governments invest?

The announcement that the US Defense Department’s Office of Strategic Capital is lending $400 million to the Australian scandium miner Sunrise Energy Metals is just one of a series of government investment deals that have caused globalist observers to question the Trump Administration’s commitment to the free market. Yet as history has repeatedly shown, governments […]

The Bear’s Lair: Time to get serious about the Budget

Looking at the Monthly Treasury Statement for June, it is clear that the U.S. budget deficit for the year to September 2026 will again be above $2 trillion, once again over 6% of Gross Domestic Product. The fault is mostly on the revenue side, where last July’s Big Beautiful Bill gave away some $150 billion […]

The Bear’s Lair: GDP should include Housewives, not Government

Simon Kuznets, the Nobel Prize-winning inventor of Gross National Product/Gross Domestic Product statistics, worked for the public sector for the greater part of his career. It is therefore not surprising that government output is included in GDP at its full cost, however useless or indeed damaging the activity undertaken by the bureaucrats concerned. Conversely, Kuznets […]

The Bear’s Lair: Lawyers Subtract Economic Value

The Trump administration’s policies must run a gauntlet of lunatic left-wing judges before they can be implemented. Infrastructure of every type in the U.S. faces huge additional costs, with its real cost ten times what it was a century ago and three times that of similar infrastructure elsewhere. Mergers can be delayed for years, to […]