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The Bear’s Lair: Housing’s froth and bubble

Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan referred this week to “froth” in the U.S. housing market; others have debated whether it is a “bubble” at least on the two coasts. Whether froth or bubble, the secular rise in house prices over the last 5 years has made long term changes in American life, most of them for […]

The Bear’s Lair: What’s that sucking sound?

In his campaigns for President, Ross Perot used to talk about a “giant sucking sound” of U.S. manufacturing jobs moving overseas. From a Korn Ferry/New America Foundation symposium Wednesday on U.S. manufacturing’s decline, the sound can still be heard. It would appear however that the fault may lie in our own actions — thus the […]

The Bear’s Lair: Three years from the peak

Next Monday, March 10, is three years from the peak in the U.S. stock market, March 10, 2000, when the Nasdaq composite index closed at 5,048.62. In bear market terms, this is a very long time. Three years from the September 1929 peak, the stock market had already touched its nadir, in June 1932 (at […]

The Bear’s Lair: Jobs in the bear market

Even in the outbreak of pessimism about the economy last week, few have touched on the effect of a prolonged bear market recession on employment patterns. Since this is a matter of huge importance to most of us, particularly young people entering the workforce and seeking a career path, I thought it worthwhile, starting from […]

The Bear’s Lair: Hogarth’s apprentices

William Hogarth’s 1747 classic “The Industrious Apprentice and the Idle Apprentice” may be about to demonstrate its continued pedagogical strength in the international economy, where Japan and the United States have enjoyed contrasting fates for a decade.

The Bear’s Lair: Bear market for Bears?

The economic news in the last several weeks has been almost uniformly positive. The commentary from our competitors has been even more so, tending to dismiss as laughable the possibility that the recovery may be only temporary, that a “double dip” recession may occur. Consequently one is driven to ask: Are we in a bear […]

The Bear’s Lair: Cheap oil? Dream on!

My esteemed colleague at United Press International, Ian Campbell, wrote in a recent “GlobalView” column that he believed oil prices would trend down over the next several months, dropping to about $17 a barrel.

The Bear’s Lair: Does autarky work?

While I was writing about the Asian economy last week, I was struck by one fact: The only country of the 10 surveyed whose economy and stockmarket have performed well in the last few months is Malaysia, defier of the IMF, the currency markets and conventional globalist economic wisdom. Moreover, as reported by United Press […]

The Bear’s Lair: The $350 billion hostage crisis

As the 24 United States airmen patiently await their release from Chinese custody, there is another hostage that is going to vault up the world’s priority list if U.S.-China relations continue to deteriorate: the $350 billion of foreign investment in China.

The Bear’s Lair: Asleep till 2015?

The venture capital industry hit town Friday at a lunch meeting held by the ESI-Sloan Congressional Forum with a report on industry progress and an outline for those congressional staffers present of what regulation the industry would like (not much).