prudent-bear

The Bear’s Lair: The uses of economic complexity

John Authers, writing in the Financial Times on October 28, suggests that societies succeed, not because of their resources but because of their knowledge, and the economic complexity to which it leads. MIT’s “Atlas of Economic Complexity” reinforces this thesis, producing visually very attractive graphics of such matters as a country’s exports, showing where its […]

The Bear’s Lair: Funny money makes markets less efficient

Eugene Fama and Robert Shiller, who together with Lars Peter Hansen received economics Nobels last week, had differing views about bubbles. Fama thought they were rare and impossible to spot, whereas Shiller made his name spotting them. The difference in their approach may however simply reflect a difference in the monetary policies pursued during their […]

The Bear’s Lair: No man is a tech-world island

As tech becomes an ever more pervasive presence in our lives, old patterns of work, communication and human interaction are being profoundly altered. While the new technology has brought enormous freedoms in some areas, it has also devastated the ability of human beings to live their lives in an autonomous manner, free from interference by […]

The Bear’s Lair: Let’s get the U.S. debt default over with

The last week in Washington has been consumed by negotiations about avoiding a debt default as no doubt will be the week to come. On all sides we are told how irresponsible and disastrous it would be to allow the United States to default on its debt obligations. That’s quite correct: it would be irresponsible […]

The Bear’s Lair: Four threats more serious than global warming

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released its new report on global warming on September 30, which was duly played up by the world’s media. Actually, if you read it carefully, it represented a considerable backing off from the previous report, released in 2007. It has now become clear that, not only has global warming […]

The Bear’s Lair: Many more defaults are to come

After an initial spot of trouble with the banks and General Motors, the 2008-09 recession has not been particularly painful in terms of corporate and governmental defaults. Recently Detroit defaulted in the largest municipal bankruptcy since the Great Depression, but Detroit has always seemed a special case. However the signs are growing that as U.S. […]

The Bear’s Lair: The only useful international agency

We live in a world in which international agencies have proliferated, both in the political and economic spheres. Economically, the World Bank and the IMF are paramount, and then there are the G8 group of leading advanced economies, the G20 group which accounts for some 85% of global GDP and other attendees at the G20 […]

The Bear’s Lair: We’re coming up on 1937

Five years after the 1929 Wall Street Crash, the U.S. economy was in deep trouble, but beginning to enjoy a vigorous recovery from the depths of a very unpleasant depression. The rest of the world, on the other hand, with the notable exception of Britain, was mired in Depression and in several cases Fascism. This […]

The Bear’s Lair: Coase suggests big companies may vanish

You can argue that Ronald Coase, who died this week, was a greater economist than Friedrich von Hayek, Milton Friedman or Maynard Keynes (in descending order of competence). The Coase Theorem, propounded in his 1960 “The problem of social cost” is one of the most important rationales for distrusting state regulation, and preferring the tax […]

The Bear’s Lair: More glue in the works

The Environmental Protection Agency has been pouring regulatory glue into the U.S. economy since 1973. The trial bar has also been pouring litigation glue into the U.S. economy for a similar period, and their colleagues in the New York financial bar have equally been adding to the sticky stuff with documentation glue (as a former […]