The Bear’s Lair

The Bear’s Lair: What will be the hot IPOs of 2029?

Investment bankers are very slow learners. That’s the only lesson that can be drawn from the catastrophic failure of the Uber Inc (NYSE:UBER) initial public offering. As this column has been writing for years, it was perfectly obvious that a loss-making taxi service with software attached was never going to be worth $100 billion. Frankly, […]

The Bear’s Lair: The flat world that never happened

Thomas Friedman’s 2005 “The World is Flat” postulated a world growing ever closer together, with diminishing barriers both trade and political and a gradual move towards at least elements of world government. With all due respect to Mr. Friedman, this never happened, and does not appear likely to. The questions that arise are: Why not? […]

The Bear’s Lair: Will we get smarter about global warming?

Philipp Blom’s “Nature’s Mutiny” (Liveright, 2019) looks at the Little Ice Age of 1560-1700 and demonstrates that, whereas the first generation afflicted by unexpected cold weather sat around moaning about God not loving them, after about 40 years more intelligent responses occurred, such as improvements in agriculture, a massive growth in international trade and the […]

The Bear’s Lair: Presidents should delegate bad news

President Trump is said to demand a folder of favorable news clippings every morning, and to refuse to deal with bad news, delegating it to staff. This runs contrary to the “buck stops here” ethos of the American Presidency, and to management textbooks which demand that the CEO be informed of all problems. Yet the […]

The Bear’s Lair: The Brexit War is entering its Western Front phase

As this column forecast four weeks ago, Treason in the Brexit process prospered, and Brexit has been postponed to October 31. Businesses groaned, as the uncertainty prolonged itself to an unendurable length. Most likely, Brexit will now either be abandoned or diluted to a degree where Britain does not break free of the EU’s regulatory […]

The Bear’s Lair: The reforms billionaires won’t bring you

Ray Dalio, self-made CEO of the Bridgewater hedge fund group, the largest such operation in the country, says capitalism is broken. His solution, unsurprisingly, is a mix of higher taxes and more public spending – just the mix that will pull up the drawbridge up behind him and prevent younger people replicating his success. From […]

The Bear’s Lair: The dark side of Tech

We are accustomed to thinking of the tech sector as a beacon of hope, leading us to a bright gadget-filled future, in which everybody’s lives will be richer. Yet evidence is mounting that the reverse is in many cases happening. Fueled by immense amounts of private equity money, tech companies are reinventing established businesses – […]

The Bear’s Lair: The Ocasio-Cortez Presidency

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D.-NY) will turn 35 on October 13, 2024 and is therefore eligible to run for President in the election of that year. By that time, two terms of President Trump will have tired the nation of solid, sober, well-managed government and the electorate will be keen to try something new. With its […]

The Bear’s Lair: Treason is rampantly prospering

“Treason doth never prosper, what’s the reason? For if it prosper, none dare call it treason,” wrote the Elizabethan poet Sir John Harington. The news that Tony Blair has been helping Emanuel Macron thwart Britain’s attempts to escape the clutches of the EU fits Harington’s epigram as never before. For if indeed Britain becomes trapped […]

The Bear’s Lair: The John C. Calhoun immigration policy

The Trump administration and some Congressional Republicans want to expand the H1B and H2B immigration programs. Under these programs – H1B for skilled labor, H2B for unskilled — immigrants can work only for their sponsoring employers and must leave the United States if that employment ends. They cannot participate in the free U.S. labor market […]