The Bear’s Lair

The Bear’s Lair: Towards a better banking system

It is likely that the over-leverage of the last decade and the lack of true reform in the banking system will lead to another financial crisis, in which taxpayers will once again be strong-armed to bail out the banking system. To prevent this from happening yet again in ten years’ time, I propose a novel […]

The Bear’s Lair: Engineering must beat financial engineering

Michael J. Dell is said to be bringing Dell Computer back to the stock market, at a valuation several times that at which it went private. GE has been thrown out of the Dow Jones Industrial Index, after a sorry saga of share buybacks, financial manipulation and forced asset sales. Tesla is unable to meet […]

The Bear’s Lair: Time for Mexico to bring back Diaz

Porfirio Diaz, who had ruled Mexico with multiple re-elections almost continuously since 1876, was ousted from power in 1911. In 107 years, you would think Mexico would have found another equally competent ruler, but it hasn’t, and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador seems very unlikely to break that track record of failure. Maybe it is time […]

The Bear’s Lair: The AI revival of Thomas Mun

Thomas Mun (1571-1641) wrote the mercantilist classic “England’s Treasure by Forraign Trade” arguing that the country should run a trade surplus and thereby build up “treasure.” It was derided by classical and Keynesian economists alike. However, almost 400 years after its writing, it may be coming back into fashion in the world of Artificial Intelligence, […]

The Bear’s Lair: Germany must stop beggaring its neighbors

German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s staff published a photo taken at the recent G7 summit that showed Merkel glowering at a defiant President Donald Trump, suggesting that Trump was isolated and alienating America’s allies. Yet when we examine actual behavior, it is Germany that is beggaring its neighbors and failing to live up to international obligations. […]

The Bear’s Lair: An honest world without hedge or PE funds?

Hedge funds and private equity funds have been the big winners in attracting money over the past 20 easy-money years. Yet more and more investors are choosing indexed portfolios, which take out the investment manager’s skill entirely. If you believe mutual funds can’t beat the market, why should you believe hedge funds and private equity […]

The Bear’s Lair: Globalization has become political poison

Since 1991, globalization has been touted as the solution to all the world’s problems, that will pull emerging markets out of poverty while making rich countries more efficient and competitive. Yet in the last few years, public opinion has soured on it; whenever new measures of globalization are proposed, voters oppose them vehemently. There are […]

The Bear’s Lair: Nearly time for a Gold Standard Referendum

On June 10, Switzerland will vote on a new system of “Vollgeld” that would abandon fractional reserve banking and centralize money creation in the central bank. It appears to be an improvement on the current system, making bank runs almost impossible and reducing leverage, but its opponents are correctly saying that by centralizing all money […]

The Bear’s Lair: The world must learn to love root-canals

Senator Marco Rubio wants to tee up yet another set of tax cuts, not oriented towards economic growth, that will further widen the U.S. budget deficit. Argentina is about to borrow $30 billion from the IMF, since it is unable to get close to balancing a budget, based on spending that is 60% higher as […]