In many areas, such as monetary policy, the U.S. Supreme Court, corporate Boards of Directors and Cabinet government, decisions are made by arriving at a group consensus. If the group is sufficiently intellectually diverse, this works well. There is however a pernicious danger, which we have seen in action many times in economic policy, where […]

The last two decades of low interest rates have seen a vast increase in the world’s stock of assets, measured at market value, largely matched by a corresponding increase in debt. However, the increase has not raised global productivity growth, which has slowed as the asset glut has increased. This points to a core economic […]

Ever since this column started in 2000, I have been writing that British house property is hopelessly overpriced. There is no question this has been spectacularly bad investment advice – Londoners who owned a home in 2000 have at least trebled their money since then, doubling it in real terms. Nevertheless, it is possible for […]

As President Trump imposes tariffs on China and elsewhere, much dark muttering is heard from the media and conventional economists about Smoot-Hawley and the 1930s. They are too gloomy. Two factors have changed since the 1930s: bloated government and the invention of computers, and their combination means that the Victorian dream of universal free trade […]

Learning the right lessons from financial crises is tough. The 1929 stock market crash was blamed for all the ills of the Great Depression that succeeded it and led to two decades of regulation and socialism. In 1720, the British tried to stop all new company formations while the French gave up on finance altogether […]

The Financial Times this week reviewed yet another adulatory biography of John Law, the financier/swindler/Keynesian responsible for France’s Mississippi Company disaster of 1716-20. Meanwhile the Congressional Budget Office published a suitably gloomy study of the budget cuts needed to stabilize U.S. public debt. With a massive financial crash coming, an inability to finance the government’s […]

President Trump is wise in many things, but he has two economic beliefs that are irredeemably foolish: low interest rates and infrastructure. To the joy of die-hard Hillary-lovers, I now propose to criticize one of those two beliefs: that in infrastructure. By and large, it is thoroughly overpriced currently, and very often yields far more […]

Last weekend, Ben Carson’s Department of Housing and Urban Development filed suit against Facebook, claiming that its methods of segregating consumers for advertisers constituted redlining, violating Civil Rights legislation. The battle between Big Data and civil rights has thus begun, rather earlier than had been expected. It is just one of the forces that will […]

Larry Summers recently reiterated his assertion that we are in an era of secular stagnation, suggesting in a new paper that low interest rates and an aging population may have caused this. However, the U.S. economy has recently shown substantial signs of growth, which appears sustainable. If President Trump can restrain his enthusiasm for low […]

“The coming collapse of China” has been predicted many times. Indeed, an excellent book of that title was a best-seller back in 2001. Yet the fictitiousness of Chinese economic statistics remains, and the over-leverage in the economy worsens. Like several other successful non-market economies, China has successfully sought rents from other countries through flaws in […]