The Bear’s Lair

The Bear’s Lair: The pitfalls of Hobbesean politics

Thomas Hobbes (1588-1679) believed that a huge state “Leviathan” was necessary to prevent the otherwise inevitable conflicts between mankind. The temporary rejection by Belgium’s Wallonia region of the Canadian trade deal agreed by the entire remainder of the EU suggests that even when we have a truly spectacularly sized “Leviathan,” absorbing 48.2% of Europe’s GDP […]

The Bear’s Lair: Bailing out Hillary’s America

Hillary Clinton is leading in the polls, but her election over Donald Trump is not yet certain. However, she is overwhelmingly favored by the pundit class, even the right-leaning of whom have developed an irrational distaste for Trump. It’s therefore worth looking at what the world will look like in 2024, after eight more years […]

The Bear’s Lair: The years of fiscal profligacy

The IMF last week released figures showing that word debt had reached $152 trillion, a record 225% of world GDP. Even though governments’ borrowing costs are ultra-low, budget deficits in the U.S. Britain and Japan are running at extraordinarily high levels, yet all the chatter is about ways to increase them rather than rein them […]

The Bear’s Lair: The holiday from history is over

Some weeks ago, I wrote suggesting that the multi-polar world we are now entering might well be more peaceful than the unipolar world of the 1990s. I still believe that to be the case in the long run, but the problem is that we will need highly capable policymakers in the West to signal to […]

The Bear’s Lair: Japan reaching the end of the road

The Bank of Japan last week capped the yield on Japan Government Bonds at zero, thus allowing it to increase bond purchases beyond the current enormous amount if yields rise. Prime minister Shinzo Abe has begged Britain to minimize the effect of its “Brexit” from the European Union, and has begged the U.S. Congress to […]

The Bear’s Lair: Distant gleam of freedom

Donald Trump’s tax plan, revealed at the Economic Club of New York on September 15, does not add up, as most Presidential candidates’ tax plans don’t. Still, it did contain one provision that is fiscally insignificant but economically enormous: by capping all tax deductions at $100,000 for single filers, $200,000 for married couples, without exceptions, […]

The Bear’s Lair: Back to 1666!

Samuel Pepys kept his money in gold bars and buried it in the back garden when the Great Fire of London threatened his house in 1666. It is generally supposed that the advent of modern banking, by allowing consumers to keep their money in a safe place without charges, has greatly increased the efficiency and […]

The Bear’s Lair: Quit backsliding on Brexit!

Almost three months have passed since the brave British voters voted for an exit from the European Union, yet Britain is no closer to actually exiting. Civil servants have been hired, but no firm timetable has been set for delivering an “Article 50” notice to the EU. Now Britain’s major foreign investors are demanding that […]

The Bear’s Lair: Proxima B could give us a fresh start

The news last week that our closest star, Proxima Centauri, has a planet Proxima B orbiting it that could possibly support life is immensely encouraging. As I have written frequently, our current economic and political arrangements are so bad that eventual collapse seems inevitable. However, like the Pilgrim Fathers, we may have the opportunity to […]

The Bear’s Lair: The Sovietization of the global economy

It was revealed this week that Citigroup’s proprietary trading team is being wound down after the Volcker Rule had excessively restricted it; its head Anna Raytcheva had spent her early years in communist Bulgaria. Moreover, her boss Mark Tsesarsky was brought up in communist Ukraine. That’s not a coincidence; it is highly significant that an […]