The Bear’s Lair

The Bear’s Lair: Don’t ask cronies to reform crony capitalism

Paul Ryan’s health care “reform” bill was defeated last week without even receiving a vote in the House of Representatives, in spite of the care he had taken to get input from the health insurance industry. That was the problem. In a crony capitalist system, where bad lobbyist-pushed laws and regulations have poured illicit profits […]

The Bear’s Lair: When Big Brother knows everything

We are rapidly approaching a position where, though genetic testing and infinite information searching, both the state and some private companies can know everything they need to know. Our genetic predisposition to disease, our dislike of the government, our taste in partners and our risky behaviors in gambling joints, strip clubs, empty roads, Internet porn […]

The Bear’s Lair: Say No to Scottish and Catalonian independence!

In general I am in favor of self-determination for small nations. I would have been on South Carolina’s side in 1861 (though not on the issue of slavery, obviously), and in 1991 I was on the side of Slovenia, Croatia, Macedonia and the other dissolving parts of the former Yugoslavia. However, in today’s world it […]

The Bear’s Lair: Where is all the malinvestment?

We have had eight, nearly nine years of zero interest rates and negative real interest rates. You don’t have to be a convinced Austrian economist to believe that in this length of time an extraordinary amount of “malinvestment” – investment that is not justified by economic reality – has grown up. Now that interest rates […]

The Bear’s Lair: All our futures depend on the next few months

Crunch time is here for the Trump administration, and for us all. President Trump’s economic policies, in particular his deregulation and an ongoing rise in interest rates, will if they work as advertised produce a surge in productivity growth that will allow the United States to pay the bills coming due. If the productivity growth […]

The Bear’s Lair: The battle between Moore and Eroom

Gordon Moore propounded in 1965 his Law, that the number of transistors in an integrated circuit doubles every two years. That Law has been gradually ceasing to apply over the last few years. Meanwhile, Eroom’s Law, that the cost of discovering a new drug doubles every nine years, appears to continue in full strength. Our […]

The Bear’s Lair: Reform the Fed before de-regulating banks!

President Trump has promised financial de-regulation, and has hired the former Chief Operating Officer of Goldman Sachs, Gary Cohn, to design it. Given Goldman’s sorry record over the last decade, that should worry us. It should worry us even more when we consider that there is no sign of a change in Fed policies, so […]

The Bear’s Lair: How far will de-globalization go?

The last couple of weeks have been full of events justifying predictions made in this column over the years, which is very gratifying. A 2010 prediction in this column and in a presentation to the American College of Cardiology talked about the possibility of de-globalization. Remarkably, that prediction appears to be coming to pass. I […]

The Bear’s Lair: Trump looks like a McKinley Republican

In the first week of Donald Trump’s Presidency, it is becoming clearer what kind of President he will be. There are elements of Andrew Jackson – Democrats now know how John Quincy Adams’ acolytes felt when a drunken mob of Jackson’s supporters ransacked the White House. While Trump is no racist economic illiterate, as Jackson […]