The Bear’s Lair

The Bear’s Lair: Climbing out of the economic mire

Mauricio Macri’s surprise victory in Argentina last week has brought wild optimism to the Argentine markets, with the Merval index of Argentine stocks up 55% since late September. Yet Argentina’s sorry track record since 1943 and Macri’s lack of a Congressional majority suggest his chances of a long-term turnaround in Argentine economic fortunes are somewhere […]

The Bear’s Lair: Curing the 21st Century malaise

The Cato Institute Annual Monetary Conference last week clarified my thought processes, and has solidified my conviction that the 21st Century economic malaise that has affected the United States and most rich countries has two causes: monetary policy and regulation. Questions that have puzzled me, notably why we have no inflation, have found potential answers, […]

The Bear’s Lair: Oh Canada – for crying out loud!

Justin Trudeau’s election victory in Canada on October 19, after a campaign in which all three major Canadian parties had led briefly in the polls, was not unexpected. However it leads to a future very much resembling the past, in which government and debt grow inexorably, while the economy, ties with Britain and Canadian relative […]

The Bear’s Lair: Lord Liverpool 2016

With the U.S. primary season approaching, and the quality of debate showing the flaws in the existing candidates, I thought it worth pondering how a truly superior statesman, Robert Banks Jenkinson, second Earl of Liverpool (British prime minister, 1812-27) would set about winning a U.S. Presidential election (assuming he had the necessary birth qualification to […]

The Bear’s Lair: Looking forward to the Polish renaissance

The victory of Poland’s Law and Justice Party (PiS) in this week’s election has been decried by the international media as a renaissance of nationalist reaction over the enlightened liberalism of the previous Civic Platform government. In reality the enlightened liberals were liberal mostly in the American sense and altogether too subservient to the bureaucracy […]

The Bear’s Lair: Combining the worst of Japan and Brazil

Brazil and to a lesser extent Japan have been in trouble recently. Brazil is suffering negative growth as a result of its corruption, government meddling and overspending. Japan has seen growth disappear and debt soar as it pursues Keynesian and easy-money remedies for its problems. Both countries, while different from each other, are generally seen […]

The Bear’s Lair: What would a cashless economy look like?

Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane wants to abolish cash, so central banks can run policies of seriously negative interest rates, abolishing the “Zero Lower Bound” rate constraint on central bank activity. Technology will soon allow this goal to be achieved; we all make far more electronic payments and far fewer cash ones than […]

The Bear’s Lair: Will Brexit break up the EU?

In 2017, British voters will have the opportunity to express their opinion in a referendum on leaving the EU. Currently the vote looks tight, although the decision of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn to abandon the convictions of a lifetime and support EU membership is a blow for the anti- camp. Yet if Britain votes to […]

The Bear’s Lair: Playthings of the regulators

Volkswagen’s attempt to “game” the U.S. emissions control system and its abject failure to do so have put another industry, automobiles, to join banking, energy, education and healthcare in the hands of the world’s regulators. Massive fines will be imposed, shareholders will be robbed, and companies’ business strategies will be directed by the whims of […]

The Bear’s Lair: Back to smoke-filled rooms!

  The appalling interaction of opinion polls and TV debates is yet again pushing the Republican party to produce a poor-quality Presidential nominee, the eighth in succession (well, to be fair, Mitt Romney by a magnificent, sustained effort rose all the way to mediocre.) Likewise the Labour party’s prolonged election of the eccentric leftist Jeremy […]